SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING

MARCH 29, 2025 -- It's already been an active Spring, and that pattern does not look to slow down anytime soon. More severe storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. Additionally, another threat for severe storms exists next Wednesday.

Starting with Sunday, the set up poses a risk for large hail, damaging winds, and potentially a few tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has put all of Southern Illinois in a Level 3 (out of 5). We could see this elevated to a Level 4 (out of 5) if confidence grows.

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A batch of showers and storms is expected to be tracking across Missouri Sunday morning. Most guidance suggests that Sunday morning's showers and thunderstorms ending near the Mississippi River, setting up a corridor of warm, humid air building across most of Southern Illinois during the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon. As the atmosphere becomes very unstable, we are anticipating storms to develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Storms will rapidly develop, gradually shifting east through the afternoon and into the evening. A mixture of supercell thunderstorms and clusters of thunderstorm lines are possible. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

TIMING: We could see a few storms developing as early as 1-2 p.m. across southwest Illinois. The main focus for severe storms in Southern Illinois will be between 4 p.m. and 11 p.m.

Could this be a bust for Southern Illinois? My confidence level is not as high as it was back on March 14-15. Showers and storms Sunday morning could send a few outflow boundaries and even remnant showers into areas of southwest Illinois. There is considerable uncertainty regarding how far east the early morning showers and storms track into Illinois. If this rain tracks further east into Southern Illinois, it could potentially help shift the severe storm threat further south and further east. (fingers crossed).

I have concern about tomorrow afternoon and evening. The wind shear is not as strong as March 14, but the instability is higher. It's a day to pay attention and to have a way to receive warnings and know where you would go in case of severe storms.

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I know this is not what you want to hear. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined Southern Illinois in a Level 3 (out of 5) again on Wednesday afternoon and evening.