TRACKING A WARM UP & THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN

APRIL 12, 2025 -- March and April have thus far been extremely active across Southern Illinois. There have been 41 tornadoes that have touched down in the National Weather Service office in Paducah's 57 county area in 2025. They have covered a total of 473.5 miles, which breaks the annual record for the most number of miles of tornado damage in the office's history (previous record was 449.8 miles set in 2011). With multiple tornado outbreaks and large scale flooding, many are left wondering when the active pattern will flip. A quick glance at the upper-level pattern, it appears the second half of April will be less active in Southern Illinois.

Surface high pressure building in overhead will lead to a lot of sunshine on Saturday afternoon, which will immediately send temperatures back into the lower 60s. By Sunday, high pressure will be east of the region, resulting in a shift to south winds, resulting in temperatures climbing back into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon.

By Monday, a disturbance will track across the Upper Midwest. This will drag a cold front south across the region Monday afternoon. An isolated shower can't entirely be ruled out, but most of the region will remain rain-free with this cold front. In the wake of the front, Tuesday will be much cooler with high temperatures only in the lower 60s.

A warm front lifting north on Wednesday night will likely result in a few showers in parts of Southern Illinois. A more active pattern looks likely Thursday and Friday with showers and a few thunderstorms. Right now, this looks NOTHING like the active patterns we saw last week. While severe storms are not entirely out of the question, it would likely be more of an isolated risk if there is a risk at all.

Looking at the overall pattern through the second half of the month, temperatures will remain mild with most days having afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s. The severe weather focus looks to shift to the more traditional corridors of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. With rivers already running very high in the region this early in the season, there's also the concern with more flooding as the season progresses.

Additionally, I'm confident that we have now experienced our last freezing temperatures of the season.