VERY WET PATTERN THIS WEEK; SNOW UNLIKELY FOR CHRISTMAS

Rain is settling in for Saturday, but it's not the only chance in the short-term forecast. Southern Illinois is entering into a five day stretch with a lot of wet weather as three storm systems traverse the Midwest through Wednesday.

Saturday's rain is tied to low pressure tracking through the mid-Mississippi Valley. While there's a lot of steady rain that will ruin some outdoor Christmas events planned in the region, there's not a lot of cold air associated with this system. In fact, as the rain comes to an end, Sunday will end up being a WARMER day as temperatures rebound into the upper 50s.

System #2 tracks into the Midwest on Monday, sending a plume of moisture northward into Southern Illinois. Widespread rain will once again overspread the region Monday morning. Heavier pockets of rain will be mixed in with even a little lightning and thunder at times. No severe storms are expected in Southern Illinois.

Rainfall amounts from Saturday through Monday will likely be in the 1.5 - 2.5-inch range. System #3 is likely to move in on Wednesday with a strong cold front. This front will bring another round of rain to the region, some of which could be heavy.

Following the midweek cold front, temperatures will be considerably COLDER. Temperatures will run BELOW AVERAGE from December 19 through December 22 with mornings in the lower 20s and afternoon highs in the 40s.

So will that lead to a "white Christmas" in Southern Illinois? Historically, the odds of at least 1" of snow on the ground on Christmas Day is less than 10% across all of Southern Illinois. In other words, on any given year, the odds of a "white Christmas" are slim.

Despite the cold weather in the days leading up to Christmas, the pattern will switch back to the warm side of things around December 23 and 24th. Modeling puts the probability of a white Christmas in Southern Illinois at slim to none at this point. In fact, there's a better chance that we see temperatures in the 50s on Christmas Day.